Monday, 27 October 2008

IRB Infra on profit highway

• H1 PAT at Rs. 95.38 cr is 75% of FY08 PAT

MUMBAI: IRB Infrastructure Developers Limited one of the largest toll road operating companies in India has declared unaudited consolidated Q2 profit of Rs. 41.21 crores on consolidated Income of Rs. 201.61 crores.

The consolidated half-yearly profit stands at Rs.95.38 crores on half-yearly consolidated total Income of Rs. 431.68 crores.

As IRB was listed in February 2008, a year-on-year comparison of financials is not possible. However, a comparison with 2008 annual results shows that IRB’s PAT for the half year at Rs. 95.38 crores has already crossed the half-way watermark of last year’s annual PAT which was Rs.126.57 crores.

Announcing the results, Mr. V. D. Mhaiskar, Chairman & Managing Director of IRB infrastructure Developers Ltd. said, “Our vertically integrated operations (construction to tolling) and focused expertise in the road sector is sure to translate into higher returns in the coming quarters as well.”

IRB Surat-Dahisar Tollway Private Limited, subsidiary of IRB Infr,a has progressed well to achieve financial closure for Surat Dahisar project in near future. Due to turmoil in financial market, financial closure is likely to take some more delay. However, company is confident in achieving the same at an early date.

IRB Infrastructure Developers Ltd. is an integrated infrastructure development and construction company in India with significant experience in the roads and highways sector. The Company is one of the largest private developers in western India and the largest toll road operating company in India. It is an established infrastructure company in the roads sector and has a large portfolio of completed and operational BOT projects in the roads infrastructure sector.

Friday, 24 October 2008

Aditya Birla Nuvo reports excellent results

Aditya Birla Nuvo continued to work on its defined strategy of building a strong foundation for all the businesses which includes:

 Achieving pan India presence in the Telecom business;
 Expanding customer reach and augmenting its portfolio in the Financial Services business;
 Transformation from a wholesale garment company to a “High-end apparel retailing” company through continued expansion of retail space and variety in wardrobe and
 Improving operating efficiency through full utilisation of existing capacity and supporting business through cost effective sites and locations in the BPO business.


As a result, while the company grew in revenues as per plan, the consolidated profitability does not truly reflect the results of the investments and efforts made due to
a) The gestating impact of the aggressive growth initiatives bunched together
b) The nature of Life Insurance business where new business premium, though profitable in the long run, causes strain in the first year due to the accounting procedure of amortising all expenses in the first year itself.

Revenues on growth path

The Company’s standalone revenues in the second quarter grew by 45% to Rs. 1,336.6 Crores from Rs. 921.4 Crores, largely driven by higher volumes and better realisation in the Fertilisers, the Carbon Black and the Garments businesses.

The Company’s consolidated revenues are up by 29% to Rs. 3,594.1 Crores from Rs. 2,795.6 Crores. All the businesses are on the growth trajectory.

• The Telecom business registered a 47% rise in revenues at Rs. 2,299.2 Crores up from Rs. 1,562.2 Crores. Idea ranks 5th with 30.38 million subscribers as on 30th September 2008. After launch of operations in Mumbai and Bihar (including Jharkhand) circles and acquisition of controlling stake in Spice that operates in Punjab and Karnataka circles, Idea is now operational in 15 circles. With the planned launch of services in Tamil Nadu (including Chennai) and Orissa circles by the calendar year end, Idea’s footprint will cover approximately 90% of India’s telephony potential.

During the quarter, Idea received Rs. 72.9 billion through sale of 14.99% stake to TM International at Rs. 156.96 per share. Consequently, Nuvo’s stake in Idea stands reduced to 27.02%. Idea’s subsidiary Aditya Birla Telecom has also received the FIPB clearance to sell 20% stake to Providence for USD 640 million.

• The Life Insurance business, during the quarter, achieved 59% growth in new business premium income at Rs. 672.8 Crores supported by expanded distribution reach and enriched product portfolio. During April-August 2008, for which the latest industry data is available, Birla Sun Life Insurance achieved 121% growth compared to 56% growth attained by private players and ranked 5th with a market share of 8.15%. Revenues, during the quarter, grew from Rs. 869.7 Crores to Rs. 999.4 Crores. It has launched 261 new distribution centres during the half year itself to reach a total of 600 centres. In view of the current slow down in the financial services sector, the business has decided to strengthen the existing branches rather than opening of new branches.

• The BPO business reported 15% growth in revenues from Rs. 393.7 Crores to Rs. 453 Crores. Growth could have been higher but for the global slowdown.

• In the Garments business, revenues surged by 20% to Rs. 325 Crores from Rs. 270.1 Crores. Continued discount sale offerings stimulated demand across the industry. During the quarter, 24 new Exclusive Brand Outlets (EBOs) were launched, taking the controlled retail space to 5.7 lacs square feet across 279 EBOs.

Investment phase of growth businesses had gestating impact on consolidated profitability
Standalone net profit, during the quarter, is up by 19% at Rs. 65.3 Crores from Rs. 54.9 Crores. At the consolidated level, the Company has reported a net loss of Rs. 104.6 Crores against net profit of Rs. 47.8 Crores attained in the corresponding quarter of the preceding year.

• The Telecom business reported lower net profit at Rs. 144.1 Crores vis-à-vis Rs. 220.3 Crores. The start up losses and brand building costs for Mumbai circle impacted the bottom-line. Going forward, the business will benefit from cash inflows from TM International and Providence, new roll outs and the Spice acquisition which gives Idea the critical circles of Punjab and Karnataka.

• In the Life insurance business, the net loss increased to Rs. 200 Crores from Rs. 83.9 Crores. This was largely due to the growing share of new business premium and higher spends on expansion of distribution network, which are key growth drivers of the business. The new business is fully profitable. However, income from it will accrue over the policy period, as is the case with the nature of this business. The new ramp up will lay a strong foundation for the future growth of the company. The proposed acquisition of Apollo Sindhoori will be driving significant synergies through cross selling.

• In the BPO business, the net loss increased to Rs. 25.7 Crores from Rs. 20.3 Crores due to forex rates. Efforts are on to plough back profitability by enhancing operating efficiencies, increasing share of high paying KPO segment and migration to low cost locations. The business is making all efforts for break-even by the year end.

• Profitability in the branded garments business improved due to improved sales from retail segment which absorbed high lease rentals and higher discounting. In the apparel retail subsidiaries, the pre-launch expenses of stores and branding costs constrained the bottom-line.

Lower capacity utilisation in the contract manufacturing business due to weak order flow has impacted its profitability for which corrective actions have been taken.


Most of our businesses are progressing well on the designed path to leverage growth opportunities. Aditya Birla Nuvo is optimistic about meeting the challenges of strategic growth initiatives and enhancing its revenues and earnings. The investments pumped, more specifically into the Life Insurance, BPO and Garments businesses, which have created a stretch on profitability in the short term as per plan, will go a long way towards value creation for shareholders.

Tuesday, 14 October 2008

Reliance Money buys stake in HK commodity exchange

First Indian firm to acquire a stake in an international exchange
Becomes the second largest shareholder in HKMEx
Reliance Money to get a seat on the HKMEx board


Mumbai, October 14, 2008: Reliance Money, part of the Reliance Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group, has acquired a 15 per cent stake in Hong Kong Mercantile Exchange (HKMEx). With this holding, Reliance Money becomes the second-largest shareholder in the commodity exchange and will have a board membership. Reliance Money is the first Indian firm to acquire a stake in an international exchange.

"Even as Asia has emerged as a key market for global commodities, the region does not have a strong commodity exchange. We believe that our deal with HKMEx will help us capitalise on the growing demand for commodities in this region," said Mr. Sudip Bandyopadhyay, Director and CEO, Reliance Money.

Reliance Money has recently received approval from the FMC and Ministry of Consumer Affairs for acquiring 10 per cent stake in domestic National Multi-Commodity Exchange of India. It plans to up this stake to 26 per cent.

"We plan to build synergies between both the exchanges thereby leveraging on the growth potential of commodity trading in India, China and the rest of Asia," added Mr. Bandyopadhyay.

HKMEx proposes to start trading in the first quarter of 2009 and will kick-start its operations by offering dollar-denominated oil contracts. It would also diversify into other commodities going forward.

Sunday, 12 October 2008

N-powering India - Wait & Watch

India needs more power. The country's peak time power shortfall is 14.8% of demand
and this gap is expected to widen. Currently, India's total power generation stands at 124 GW. Of that, coal comprises 55%, hydroelectric 26%, natural gas 10%, renewable
5% and nuclear energy only 3%.

Background of the India-US nuclear deal

The primary reason for India's poor nuclear power production has been chronic
uranium shortage, which incidentally was the main driving force for the India-US
nuclear deal. India won the right to buy nuclear energy supplies after the 45-country
Nuclear Suppliers Group granted a waiver for sales to the country outside the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty on Sept. 6, 2008. This deal ends a 34-year embargo and gives India the right to buy nuclear reactors from abroad and access nuclear fuel from the global market.

Estimated market size

According to a recent McKinsey report, the demand for power is likely to rise from the current ~120 GW to ~360 GW by 2017. The total power generation capacity will have to be pushed up by ~240 GW. Assuming that the share of nuclear energy grows to 7% (as estimated by many analysts), India would need nuclear power generation of ~25,000 MW. Also, if we assume that all nuclear power reactors are of 1000 MW size, with each costing ~USD 4 billion, the total market size, in terms of value, would be ~USD 100 billion.

Market structure and players

The nuclear power generation business is capital-intensive. A nuclear power plant costs Rs. 18-19 crore per MW capacity to build, against Rs 4-5 crore for a coal-fired plant or Rs 3-4 crore for one running on gas. So, the ensuing market structure is likely to omprise of many large sized players and still be fragmented in nature. For instance, USD 1.2 billion GVK group, BHEL, L&T, Tata Power, Jindal and Videocon are among the 40 companies in contention for contracts to build nuclear reactors and ancillary infrastructure. This fragmented market structure may result in priceundercutting and lower returns on investment (ROI) initially for all players. Currently, only one player, Nuclear Power Corporation of India Ltd (NPCIL), with an installed capacity of 6,500 MW, operates in the market. NPCIL operates only 40% of its capacity, mainly on account of lack of uranium supplies.

Drivers


Huge market size: The opportunity worth USD 100 billion is the prime driver for the market. Almost 40 domestic companies were vying to enter the market even before the US Congress cleared the deal. Cost structure of the business: In a conventional plant, fuel costs constitute 50% of the total cost and capital expenditure constitutes the remaining 50%. In a nuclear plant, the capital expenditure makes up for 80% of the total cost while fuel costs account for only 20% of the total cost. In the long term, a nuclear plant becomes cheaper to run than a conventional unit. This implies that the business will be of a fixed cost nature and will not be subject to the vagaries of raw material prices.

Entry Barriers

India's Atomic Energy Act of 1962 allows only government-owned companies i.e. with at least a 51% GOI (Government of India) stake, to enter the market. However, this will be amended soon to allow private players to enter the market.

Lack of a public-private partnership (PPP) model: This model is needed to sort out issues like power purchase agreements, tariffs, taxes and liabilities in the event of an accident. Currently, the GOI bears the liability for the cost of damages, in case of an accident. Long gestation period and high initial costs: A nuclear plant takes 3-5 years to build as against 2-3 years for a conventional thermal plant. Also, in the initial stages, electricity from a nuclear plant costs Rs 6.5 per unit as against Rs 2.5-3.0 from conventional units. All of these may result in component supply contracts encashment only after the plant becomes operational and starts generating cash inflows. The long gestation period and low initial returns may dissuade small players from entering the market.

Opportunities


The recent financial crisis in the US is estimated to be ~USD 2 trillion in size. To fill out this void, the US government will try to increase the GDP as fast as possible. This may lead to increased sale of nuclear power technology and wares to India. The ease of availability of technology and wares may attract more players and increase the total market size. The above-mentioned opportunity may also help India to wrest the deal along with fuel supply agreements from US vendors. This will also increase competition among all foreign vendors (for instance France) and will help Indian companies in clinching better deals.

Threats

Dependence on foreign fuel supplies: This has been a threat in the past too. Although fuel supply agreements may be incorporated in the deal, there is a lack of assured indigenous supply. India's uranium mines are mainly in Jharkhand, Andhra Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh, which are Naxalite (terrorist) infested territories, and much of these mines are thus out of bounds for exploration. Another uranium ore site in Meghalaya faces serious environmental objections. There has been a good find in Domiasiat near the Bangladesh border, but that too is subject to security issues. Also, Indian uranium is poor in quality. The ore concentrations are only 300 parts per million (ppm) as against optimally required 600-700 ppm. Going forward, this will be a threat, as any consolidation among suppliers will lead to disruption of supplies and losses in the business.

Conclusion

Given the long gestation period, the earnings stream will be visible after a long time. Investors can follow a wait and watch policy for entering this market.
Credit: www.ghallabhansali.com

Wednesday, 1 October 2008

GDR thumbs up for Hindalco Rights

MUMBAI, October 1, 2008: The right offer to the company's GDR holders is subscribed to the extent of 99.30%.

The GDR entitlement was to the tune of 56.42 million shares, against which the subscriptions came in for 56.03 million shares.
• India's largest rights issue by Kumar Mangalam Birla promoted Hindalco is all set to sail through with the merchant bankers and FIs committing to subscribe.
• Market sources say the merchant bankers have committed to pick up 40% while FIs – LIC and GIC – agreed to pick up 15%. The promoters have already decided to buy 50% of the rights issue shares.
• Hindalco has come out with 525,802,403 equity hares with a face value of Re 1 each at a premium of Rs 95 per equity share.
• The issue size works out to Rs 5047.7 crores.
• Issue opened on September 22 and will close on October 10.
• The lead managers to the issue are: ABM AMRO Securities (India) Private Ltd, Citigroup Global Markets India Private Ltd, Deutsche Equities India Private Ltd, DSP Merrill Lynch, and SBI Capital Markets Ltd.
• Heavy demand of the Renunciation of the Rights – volume in excess of 14 million as of yesterday